Pity Bob Chapek. Head down, beavering away at Disney for 27 years, making neither headlines nor waves, and when he finally gets the keys to the castle the roof falls in.
The coronavirus has shuttered Disney’s theme parks in Shanghai and Hong Kong for at least two months, and now Disneyland Tokyo is shutting down for at least two weeks. Other Disney parks and resorts are likely to suffer a slowdown due to fears of contagion, and no one is likely to be booking cruises for a while, which could leave Disney Cruises high and dry.
Last year, Parks and Experiences, Chapek’s old division, took in over a third of Disney’s total revenue.
Meanwhile, Chinese movie theaters remain on lockdown due to the virus, forcing Disney to postpone the Chinese premier of “Mulan.” China represents the second largest box office market in the world so a prolonged shutdown there could be devastating to Hollywood, but particularly for Disney, which more than any other studio has tailored its film business strategy around worldwide franchises, such as Marvel and Pixar movies.
Movie theaters around the world, in fact, are suffering a slowdown at the turnstiles as audiences avoid crowds.
But the coronavirus isn’t Chapek’s only challenge. After a fast start, there are signs that the much-hyped Disney + may not be quite the runaway success it seemed.
According to a new report by DecisionData, interest in the new streaming service may have peaked early. The highlights:
We have found in our research that search interest for Disney+ has plummeted over 80% in the past two months.
Netflix search interest has remained steady, even seeing a small increase following the Disney+ launch.
It is being reported that trends on social media have turned negative for Disney+, with increases in the number of people claiming to cancel their subscriptions.
A substantial number (at least 20%) of Disney+'s reported new signups are from partnership agreements that include free trials (Verizon offering their customers one free year of the streaming service).
Other analysts see similar warning signs.
“Disney+ has probably already achieved its peak absolute net adds in the first quarter of its existence,” Bernstein analyst Todd Juenger said in a recent research report. “In other words, there will probably never be another year where Disney+ adds as many subscribers as it did in the first year, or frankly in its first quarter.”
LightShed Partners analyst Richard Greenfield (a long-time Disney bear) added, “If you haven’t signed up now, what’s the catalyst? The single biggest question is, can they grow that US subscriber number from here? Or, have they largely maxed out in the US in weeks from launch?”
It’s starting to make Bob Iger’s sudden departure look more like a bug out.
RightsTech Headlines
Top headlines from the week at our RightsTech blog:
Smithsonian Releases 2.8 Million Images Into Public Domain
For the first time in its 174-year history, the Smithsonian has released 2.8 million high-resolution two- and three-dimensional images from across its collections onto an open access online platform for patrons to peruse and download free of charge. Featuring data and material from all Smithsonian museums, research centers, libraries, archives and the National Zoo, the new digital depot encourages the public to not just view its contents, but use, reuse and transform them into just about anything they choose. Read More (Source: Smithsonian Magazine)
YouTube Not Bound by First Amendment, Appeals Court Rules
A federal appeals court in California ruled that privately operated internet platforms are free to censor content they don’t like. Though not unexpected, the unanimous decision by the Ninth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco marks the most emphatic rejection of the argument advanced in some conservative circles that YouTube, Twitter, Facebook and other giant tech platforms are bound by the First Amendment. Read More (Source: Wall Street Journal)
Streaming TV’s Boom Is a Mixed Blessing for Some Hollywood Writers
The rise of streaming has fattened the wallets of superstar writer-producers like Shonda Rhimes and Ryan Murphy, while also giving chances to unproven writers. But the medium’s shorter seasons and unpredictable cadences have made it harder for writers in Hollywood’s middle class to plot out a year’s work in a way that doesn’t leave them nervous when mortgage payments are due. Read More (Source: The New York Times)
Whitney Houston hologram tour fan reaction: ‘What a mind f–k’
“An Evening With Whitney: The Whitney Houston Hologram Tour” premiered Tuesday night. But judging from fans’ reactions, it’s not right — and it’s definitely not okay. One Twitter commenter recently suggested the tour “reeks like a desperate money grab” and added that “her estate should be ashamed,” while another wondered, “How dare people profit from such nonsense!” Read More (Source: New York Post)
Final Cuts
COVID and chill
The coronavirus may be hurting Hollywood but some analysts see a (slightly ghoulish) upside to the outbreak for in-home services like Netflix. Netflix “is an obvious beneficiary if consumers stay home due to coronavirus (COVID-19 virus) concerns, and this has been reflected in considerable stock price outperformance this week,” BMO Capital Market analyst Dan Salmon wrote in a research note Friday.
In the game
Online video game hub Roblox raised $150 million in new financing this week, pegging its overall valuation at $4 billion. The free platform features millions of games, all built with tools provided by the company, and 115 million active monthly users worldwide. Lead investor this round was Andreessen Horowitz, who were early investors in Facebook and other tech giants.
Thou Shalt Not Copy
The Vatican Apostolic Library has been digitizing its collection of more than a million volumes, many dating back centuries, but it’s not following the open-access path of many of its secular fellow archives. The digital collection is now available online, but the front page carries the commandment, “Copyright © Vatican Library. All rights reserved. The contents of this site are protected by copyright. Neither the text nor the images may be reproduced, in any form, without the authorisation of the Vatican Library, 00120, Vatican City”. That presumably includes the Vatican’s illustrated manuscript of Virgil’s “Aeneid” dated to AD400.