Life comes at you fast.
With the global Covid-19 pandemic abruptly shutting down much of public for at least several months businesses that depend on or provide a venue for public activities may find a permanently changed world when the world comes out the other side.
That’s likely to be as true in the media & entertainment world as in any other realm.
On Monday, NBCUniversal announced that it will make upcoming films from Universal Studios, beginning with the scheduled April release Trolls World Tour available on demand at the same time they hit theaters, whenever that turns out to be.
Cinemas have already closed entirely in more than 30 markets around the world, and partially in a dozen or so more. Most theaters in the U.S. are expected to go dark by this weekend.
Universal is also making it films that are currently in theatrical release, The Hunt and The Invisible Man, as well as Focus Features' Emma, immediately available for $19.98 for a 48-hour rental period through multiple video-on-demand services.
Disney, meanwhile, announced it is moving up the planned streaming release of Frozen 2 on Disney + by three months to provide home-bound families “some fun and joy during this challenging period.”
Universal has not said whether its new day-and-date release policy will be permanent. Nor is it clear whether other studios will follow suit. Much is likely to depend on how quickly and enthusiastically moviegoers return to the cinema once theaters are able to open again.
The National Association of Theatre Owners put out a statement Tuesday blasting speculation that the closing of theaters due to the coronavirus signals, and Universal’s move to route around those closures heralds a permanent disappearance of the exclusive theatrical window.
“Such speculation ignores the underlying financial logic of studio investment in theatrical titles,” the NATO statement said. “To avoid catastrophic losses to the studios, these titles must have the fullest possible theatrical release around the world.”
Maybe. But as I’ve discussed here before, studios’ strategic priorities are shifting as they look to develop their own, streaming-based direct-to-consumer platforms. While Disney’s move with Frozen 2 won’t impact the theatrical window — the film was released last year — the studio clearly saw an opportunity, however unwelcome, to use the current circumstances to give a boost to Disney +.
There is also a question as to whether theaters themselves can weather the current storm. The industry was already coming off a down year in terms of attendance, and some chains in the U.S. and Canada are fairly heavily leveraged. A prolonged period without cash flow could push one or more over the edge.
The coronavirus may not bring down the curtain for good, but it could start a trend that becomes irreversible.
The traditional pay-TV business is also likely to suffer a serious blow from the coronavirus.
While overall viewing may increase in the near term as Americans shut themselves up at home, live sports has been the last thread holding together the linear pay-TV bundle. With nearly all major sports leagues and tournaments shutting down or postponing their seasons, that last thread may finally unravel, tipping the already significant cord-cutting trend into a terminal phase.
That would have major implications not just for pay-TV service providers but for the broadcast and cable networks that depend on live sports to provide them leverage with both advertisers and cable operators.
As Barclays analyst Kannan Venkateshwar wrote in a research note this week, “With every major sports event either suspended or canceled, we are likely to see almost a large-scale experiment that is likely to lay bare the economics of the legacy television business”
RightsTech in the Time of Coronavirus
In 1604 and into 1605, London was ravaged by Plague, forcing much of the city into what today we would call lockdown: Many types of public gatherings were banned, theaters were shuttered, and houses that had been touched by the disease were marked with red crosses and the occupants told to stay indoors.
William Shakespeare used his forced downtime to write “King Lear” and “Macbeth.”
Some 60-odd years later, during another outbreak of Plague, Isaac Newton worked out the laws of motion and invented the calculus while self-isolating away from London.
Hoping for another Newton or Shakespeare to emerge from the current Covid-19 pandemic might be setting expectations a bit high. But with virtually the entire media and entertainment industry mothballed until further notice, it’s not out of the question that the extended downtime and forced isolation could become an important, if unwanted, engine of innovation, leaving a changed business in its wake.
The most immediate impact of the current calamity is being felt by the live and location-based entertainment sectors: Concerts and music festivals have been cancelled or postponed; movie houses and Broadway theaters have gone dark; theme parks have been shuttered.
Billions of dollars are likely to be lost before it’s all done and much of that lost business is not likely to be recovered.
The longer term impact, however, could be felt in less visible ways…(read more).
Final Cuts
Going virtual
Speaking of new ways of managing licensing and content acquisitions, industries are moving rapidly to set up virtual marketplaces and showcases to replace the in-person fests and festivals shuttered by the coronavirus. After cancelling the brick-and-mortar version, MipTV organizer Reed Midem is launching a digital version of the international TV marketplace, while plans for a virtual Marché du Film are quickly coming together in the likely event that the Cannes Film Festival is cancelled.
Live, online
With hundreds of concert tours and music festivals being shut down, many indie artists who depend on performing to reach their audience are jumping onto live streaming platforms in lieu of live venues. Live theater companies are also getting into the live streaming act as marquees go dark.
Below the line bloodbath
With hundreds of movie shoots and TV productions shutting down due to the coronavirus, the International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees, which represents below-the-line workers, reported this week that its 150,000 members have lost 120,000 jobs so far.
Below the belt blowout
With Hollywood shutting down because of Covid-19, North Hollywood could be next. The Free Speech Coalition, which represents the adult film industry, is urging a voluntary shutdown of porn shoots at least through the end of March.